DESIGNING THE ACCIDENT CAUSATION AND PREVENTION MODEL FOR ZAMBIAN MINES: A CASE STUDY OF MOPANI COPPER MINES (NKANA MINE)

Abstract

This expanded thesis designs an integrated accident causation and prevention model for
Zambian mines, using Mopani Copper Mines, Nkana Mine, as the principal case study. The
study responds to the persistent occurrence of occupational injuries, serious incidents and
fatalities in large-scale Zambian mining despite improvements in formal safety management
systems and lost-time injury frequency performance before 2014. The research is grounded in
a pragmatic philosophy and a retrospective case study design that combines accident statistics,
regulatory documents, historical mine safety evidence, occupational safety and health theory,
and qualitative interpretation of incident causation. The literature review critically examines
classical and contemporary accident causation models, including Heinrich's Domino model,
Reason's Swiss Cheese model, the Bowtie model, Rasmussen's Risk Management Framework,
STAMP, HFACS and Haddon's prevention strategies. It argues that no single imported model
adequately explains accidents in a developing-country mining environment where production
pressure, ageing infrastructure, contractor work, language diversity, limited regulatory
capacity and resource constraints shape the conditions of work. The thesis develops the
Zambian Mining Accident Prevention Model (ZAMPAM), a context-sensitive model that
integrates five causation layers: regulatory and socio-economic pressures, organisational and
management systems, technical and engineering controls, task and workplace conditions, and
human performance at the point of work. The prevention component of the model converts
these layers into practical interventions involving hazard identification, barrier management,
ground control, ventilation assurance, machinery safety, contractor management, training,
worker consultation, emergency preparedness, incident learning and regulatory strengthening.
The study concludes that sustainable mine safety in Zambia requires a shift from reactive
compliance to proactive systems-based prevention, supported by accountable leadership,
empowered workers, robust safety data, competent regulators and continuous learning from
incidents.

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